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Villarreal III vs Castellón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Villarreal III
Villarreal III
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Castellón II
Castellón II
10/7/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 5Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Villarreal III50%
×Draw25%
Castellón II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal III
1.63
Castellón II
1.09

Villarreal III creates 50% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 67 away

creates per match

Villarreal III
1.71
Castellón II
1.22

allows per match

Villarreal III
0.96
Castellón II
1.54

finishing

Villarreal III+0.00on par
Castellón II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal III ↓

Castellón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Villarreal III or draw
75%
Villarreal III or Castellón II
75%
Draw or Castellón II
50%

Winning margin

Villarreal III wins by 2+
26%
Castellón II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Villarreal III 1+ goals
80%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
48%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
22%
Castellón II 1+ goals
66%
Castellón II 2+ goals
30%
Castellón II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Villarreal III (draw refunded)
66%
Castellón II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal III at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

Castellón II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal III attack 1.71 + Castellón II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.63

Castellón II attack 1.22 + Villarreal III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Villarreal III scores more
50%
level
25%
Castellón II scores more
25%

Villarreal III at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Villarreal III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Villarreal III 1–2 Castellón II

Castellón II beat Villarreal III 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal in Villarreal.