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Castellón II vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Castellón II
Castellón II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
2/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 19Camp de futbol Javier Marquina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Castellón II39%
×Draw26%
Villarreal III35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellón II
1.35
Villarreal III
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 112 away

creates per match

Castellón II
1.48
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

Castellón II
1.16
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

Castellón II+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón II ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Castellón II or draw
65%
Castellón II or Villarreal III
74%
Draw or Villarreal III
61%

Winning margin

Castellón II wins by 2+
18%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Castellón II 1+ goals
74%
Castellón II 2+ goals
39%
Castellón II 3+ goals
15%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
72%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
36%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Castellón II (draw refunded)
53%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón II attack 1.48 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Castellón II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Castellón II scores more
39%
level
26%
Villarreal III scores more
35%

Castellón II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Castellón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Castellón II 1–2 Villarreal III

Villarreal III beat Castellón II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Camp de futbol Javier Marquina in Castelló de la Plana.