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Villarreal II vs Tenerife — Segunda División 2018

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tenerife
Tenerife
12/10/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 20Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Villarreal II43%
×Draw28%
Tenerife29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.29
Tenerife
0.99

Villarreal II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 149 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.33
Tenerife
0.85

allows per match

Villarreal II
1.14
Tenerife
1.26

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
Tenerife+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Tenerife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
71%
Villarreal II or Tenerife
72%
Draw or Tenerife
57%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
20%
Tenerife wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
72%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
37%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
14%
Tenerife 1+ goals
63%
Tenerife 2+ goals
26%
Tenerife 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
60%
Tenerife (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

Tenerife away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.33 + Tenerife defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tenerife attack 0.85 + Villarreal II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Villarreal II scores more
43%
level
28%
Tenerife scores more
29%

Villarreal II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Villarreal II 2–2 Tenerife

Villarreal II and Tenerife drew 2-2 in Segunda División on December 10, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal in Villarreal.