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Tenerife vs Villarreal II — Segunda División 2018

Tenerife
Tenerife
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
4/1/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 34Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Tenerife51%
×Draw27%
Villarreal II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenerife
1.40
Villarreal II
0.81

Tenerife creates 73% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 42 away

creates per match

Tenerife
1.15
Villarreal II
0.81

allows per match

Tenerife
0.80
Villarreal II
1.64

finishing

Tenerife+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tenerife or draw
78%
Tenerife or Villarreal II
73%
Draw or Villarreal II
49%

Winning margin

Tenerife wins by 2+
25%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tenerife 1+ goals
75%
Tenerife 2+ goals
41%
Tenerife 3+ goals
17%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
56%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
19%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tenerife (draw refunded)
70%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.80 · 149 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife attack 1.15 + Villarreal II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.40

Villarreal II attack 0.81 + Tenerife defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tenerife scores more
51%
level
27%
Villarreal II scores more
22%

Tenerife at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tenerife vs Villarreal II

Tenerife and Villarreal II drew 1-1 in Segunda División on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz in Tenerife.