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Villarreal II vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon
11/4/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 14Estadio de la Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Villarreal II41%
×Draw29%
Sporting Gijon31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.23
Sporting Gijon
1.02

Villarreal II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 169 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.33
Sporting Gijon
0.90

allows per match

Villarreal II
1.14
Sporting Gijon
1.14

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Sporting Gijon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
69%
Villarreal II or Sporting Gijon
71%
Draw or Sporting Gijon
59%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
18%
Sporting Gijon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
71%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
35%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
13%
Sporting Gijon 1+ goals
64%
Sporting Gijon 2+ goals
27%
Sporting Gijon 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
57%
Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.33 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sporting Gijon attack 0.90 + Villarreal II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Villarreal II scores more
41%
level
29%
Sporting Gijon scores more
31%

Villarreal II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villarreal II vs Sporting Gijon

Sporting Gijon beat Villarreal II 3-0 in Segunda División on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio de la Cerámica in Villarreal.