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Sporting Gijon vs Villarreal II — Segunda División 2018

Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
10/7/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sporting Gijon51%
×Draw26%
Villarreal II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gijon
1.48
Villarreal II
0.87

Sporting Gijon creates 70% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sporting Gijon
1.31
Villarreal II
0.81

allows per match

Sporting Gijon
0.93
Villarreal II
1.64

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw
78%
Sporting Gijon or Villarreal II
74%
Draw or Villarreal II
49%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+
26%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals
77%
Sporting Gijon 2+ goals
43%
Sporting Gijon 3+ goals
19%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
58%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
22%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)
70%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.93 · 169 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.31 + Villarreal II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Villarreal II attack 0.81 + Sporting Gijon defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more
51%
level
26%
Villarreal II scores more
22%

Sporting Gijon at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Sporting Gijon 3–1 Villarreal II

Sporting Gijon beat Villarreal II 3-1 in Segunda División on October 7, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Molinón in Gijón.