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Villarreal II vs Sevilla Atletico — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sevilla Atletico
Sevilla Atletico
5/17/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Villarreal II59%
×Draw24%
Sevilla Atletico16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.66
Sevilla Atletico
0.74

Villarreal II creates 124% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.79
Sevilla Atletico
0.65

allows per match

Villarreal II
0.84
Sevilla Atletico
1.53

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Sevilla Atletico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
84%
Villarreal II or Sevilla Atletico
76%
Draw or Sevilla Atletico
41%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
33%
Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
81%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
49%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
23%
Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals
52%
Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals
17%
Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
78%
Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

Sevilla Atletico away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.79 + Sevilla Atletico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sevilla Atletico attack 0.65 + Villarreal II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Villarreal II scores more
59%
level
24%
Sevilla Atletico scores more
16%

Villarreal II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Villarreal II 3–0 Sevilla Atletico

Villarreal II beat Sevilla Atletico 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal in Villarreal.