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Sevilla Atletico vs Villarreal II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sevilla Atletico
Sevilla Atletico
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
10/18/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sevilla Atletico35%
×Draw30%
Villarreal II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla Atletico
1.06
Villarreal II
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Sevilla Atletico
1.05
Villarreal II
1.19

allows per match

Sevilla Atletico
0.96
Villarreal II
1.07

finishing

Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla Atletico ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sevilla Atletico or draw
65%
Sevilla Atletico or Villarreal II
70%
Draw or Villarreal II
65%

Winning margin

Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+
14%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals
65%
Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals
29%
Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals
9%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
66%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
29%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)
50%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla Atletico at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla Atletico attack 1.05 + Villarreal II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Villarreal II attack 1.19 + Sevilla Atletico defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Sevilla Atletico scores more
35%
level
30%
Villarreal II scores more
35%

Sevilla Atletico at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Sevilla Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sevilla Atletico 2–1 Villarreal II

Sevilla Atletico beat Villarreal II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Navas in Sevilla.