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Villarreal II vs Racing Santander — Segunda División 2018

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
6/2/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 42Estadio de la Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Villarreal II42%
×Draw27%
Racing Santander31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.38
Racing Santander
1.15

Villarreal II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 106 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.33
Racing Santander
1.16

allows per match

Villarreal II
1.14
Racing Santander
1.43

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Racing Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
69%
Villarreal II or Racing Santander
73%
Draw or Racing Santander
58%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
20%
Racing Santander wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
75%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
40%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
16%
Racing Santander 1+ goals
68%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
32%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
57%
Racing Santander (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.33 + Racing Santander defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Racing Santander attack 1.16 + Villarreal II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Villarreal II scores more
42%
level
27%
Racing Santander scores more
31%

Villarreal II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villarreal II vs Racing Santander

Villarreal II beat Racing Santander 1-0 in Segunda División on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de la Cerámica in Villarreal.