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Racing Santander vs Villarreal II — Segunda División 2018

Racing Santander
Racing Santander
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
11/25/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Campos de Sport de El Sardinero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Racing Santander53%
×Draw25%
Villarreal II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Santander
1.65
Villarreal II
0.96

Racing Santander creates 72% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 42 away

creates per match

Racing Santander
1.67
Villarreal II
0.81

allows per match

Racing Santander
1.11
Villarreal II
1.64

finishing

Racing Santander+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Racing Santander or draw
78%
Racing Santander or Villarreal II
75%
Draw or Villarreal II
47%

Winning margin

Racing Santander wins by 2+
29%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Racing Santander 1+ goals
81%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
49%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
23%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
62%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
25%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander (draw refunded)
71%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 106 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander attack 1.67 + Villarreal II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.65

Villarreal II attack 0.81 + Racing Santander defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Racing Santander scores more
53%
level
25%
Villarreal II scores more
22%

Racing Santander at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Racing Santander 2–0 Villarreal II

Racing Santander beat Villarreal II 2-0 in Segunda División on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Campos de Sport de El Sardinero in Santander.