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Villarreal II vs Europa Fc — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Europa Fc
Europa Fc
9/13/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Estadio de la Ceramica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Villarreal II51%
×Draw25%
Europa Fc24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.60
Europa Fc
1.02

Villarreal II creates 57% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.79
Europa Fc
1.21

allows per match

Villarreal II
0.84
Europa Fc
1.42

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
Europa Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Europa Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
76%
Villarreal II or Europa Fc
75%
Draw or Europa Fc
49%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
27%
Europa Fc wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
80%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
47%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
22%
Europa Fc 1+ goals
64%
Europa Fc 2+ goals
27%
Europa Fc 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
68%
Europa Fc (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

Europa Fc away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.79 + Europa Fc defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.60

Europa Fc attack 1.21 + Villarreal II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Villarreal II scores more
51%
level
25%
Europa Fc scores more
24%

Villarreal II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Villarreal II 3–3 Europa Fc

Villarreal II and Europa Fc drew 3-3 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio de la Ceramica in Villarreal.