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Europa Fc vs Villarreal II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Europa Fc
Europa Fc
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
5/10/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 36Can Drago

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Europa Fc41%
×Draw26%
Villarreal II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Europa Fc
1.38
Villarreal II
1.20

Europa Fc creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Europa Fc
1.68
Villarreal II
1.19

allows per match

Europa Fc
1.21
Villarreal II
1.07

finishing

Europa Fc+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa Fc ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Europa Fc or draw
67%
Europa Fc or Villarreal II
74%
Draw or Villarreal II
59%

Winning margin

Europa Fc wins by 2+
19%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Europa Fc 1+ goals
75%
Europa Fc 2+ goals
40%
Europa Fc 3+ goals
16%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
70%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
34%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Europa Fc (draw refunded)
56%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Europa Fc at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Europa Fc attack 1.68 + Villarreal II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.38

Villarreal II attack 1.19 + Europa Fc defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Europa Fc scores more
41%
level
26%
Villarreal II scores more
33%

Europa Fc at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Europa Fc vs Villarreal II

Europa Fc and Villarreal II drew 3-3 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Can Drago in Barcelona.