Villarreal II 0–1 Elche: Result & Stats

Villarreal II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Elche

3/10/2024

Segunda División · Round 30Estadio de la Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Villarreal II41%

×Draw27%

Elche31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villarreal IIExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.10

Villarreal II

1.31

Elche

1.10

Villarreal II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 86 away

1.33

creates per match

1.07

1.14

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Villarreal II

1.33

Elche

1.07

allows per match

Villarreal II

1.14

Elche

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par

Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw

69%

Villarreal II or Elche

73%

Draw or Elche

59%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+

19%

Elche wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals

73%

Villarreal II 2+ goals

38%

Villarreal II 3+ goals

14%

Elche 1+ goals

67%

Elche 2+ goals

30%

Elche 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)

57%

Elche (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.33 + Elche defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Elche attack 1.07 + Villarreal II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Villarreal II scores more

41%

level

27%

Elche scores more

31%

Villarreal II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff