Elche 1–0 Villarreal II: Result & Stats

Elche

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Villarreal II

8/26/2023

Segunda División · Round 3Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Elche54%

×Draw26%

Villarreal II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchVillarreal II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.79

Elche

1.48

Villarreal II

0.79

Elche creates 87% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 42 away

1.31

creates per match

0.81

0.77

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Elche

1.31

Villarreal II

0.81

allows per match

Elche

0.77

Villarreal II

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche+0.00on par

Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Villarreal II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Elche or draw

80%

Elche or Villarreal II

74%

Draw or Villarreal II

46%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

27%

Villarreal II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

77%

Elche 2+ goals

43%

Elche 3+ goals

19%

Villarreal II 1+ goals

55%

Villarreal II 2+ goals

19%

Villarreal II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

73%

Villarreal II (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.77 · 86 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Villarreal II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Villarreal II attack 0.81 + Elche defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Elche scores more

54%

level

26%

Villarreal II scores more

20%

Elche at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff