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Villarreal II vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
11/24/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Villarreal II49%
×Draw26%
Atlético Madrid II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.52
Atlético Madrid II
1.01

Villarreal II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.79
Atlético Madrid II
1.19

allows per match

Villarreal II
0.84
Atlético Madrid II
1.26

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
75%
Villarreal II or Atlético Madrid II
74%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
51%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
25%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
78%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
45%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
20%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
27%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
66%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.79 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.19 + Villarreal II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Villarreal II scores more
49%
level
26%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
25%

Villarreal II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Villarreal II 3–2 Atlético Madrid II

Villarreal II beat Atlético Madrid II 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal in Villarreal.