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Atlético Madrid II vs Villarreal II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
1/24/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Centro Deportivo Wanda Alcalá de Henares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Atlético Madrid II43%
×Draw27%
Villarreal II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Madrid II
1.33
Villarreal II
1.05

Atlético Madrid II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II
1.60
Villarreal II
1.19

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II
0.91
Villarreal II
1.07

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw
71%
Atlético Madrid II or Villarreal II
73%
Draw or Villarreal II
57%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
20%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
15%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
65%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
28%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
59%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.91 · 57 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.60 + Villarreal II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.33

Villarreal II attack 1.19 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more
43%
level
27%
Villarreal II scores more
29%

Atlético Madrid II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Madrid II 1 – 1 Villarreal II

Atlético Madrid II and Villarreal II drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 24, 2026.

The match was played at Centro Deportivo Wanda Alcalá de Henares in Madrid.