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Villarreal II vs Alcorcon — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alcorcon
Alcorcon
9/1/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio de la Ceramica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Villarreal II53%
×Draw26%
Alcorcon21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.56
Alcorcon
0.88

Villarreal II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.79
Alcorcon
0.92

allows per match

Villarreal II
0.84
Alcorcon
1.32

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Alcorcon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
79%
Villarreal II or Alcorcon
74%
Draw or Alcorcon
47%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
28%
Alcorcon wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
79%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
46%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
21%
Alcorcon 1+ goals
59%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
22%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
71%
Alcorcon (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.79 + Alcorcon defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Alcorcon attack 0.92 + Villarreal II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Villarreal II scores more
53%
level
26%
Alcorcon scores more
21%

Villarreal II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villarreal II 1 – 0 Alcorcon

Villarreal II beat Alcorcon 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio de la Ceramica in Villarreal.