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Alcorcon vs Villarreal II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
3/23/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Alcorcon42%
×Draw27%
Villarreal II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.34
Villarreal II
1.11

Alcorcon creates 21% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
1.61
Villarreal II
1.19

allows per match

Alcorcon
1.03
Villarreal II
1.07

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
69%
Alcorcon or Villarreal II
73%
Draw or Villarreal II
58%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
19%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
74%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
39%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
15%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
67%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
30%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
58%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 1.61 + Villarreal II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.34

Villarreal II attack 1.19 + Alcorcon defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alcorcon scores more
42%
level
27%
Villarreal II scores more
31%

Alcorcon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alcorcon 2 – 1 Villarreal II

Alcorcon beat Villarreal II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Domingo in Alcorcón.