Villaralbo 0–1 Laguna de Duero: Result & Stats

Villaralbo

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Laguna de Duero

2/22/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 25Campo Municipal Los Barreros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Villaralbo57%

×Draw24%

Laguna de Duero19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VillaralboExpected goals in this matchLaguna de Duero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.86

Villaralbo

1.71

Laguna de Duero

0.86

Villaralbo creates 99% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 35 away

1.02

creates per match

0.80

0.92

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Villaralbo

1.02

Laguna de Duero

0.80

allows per match

Villaralbo

0.92

Laguna de Duero

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villaralbo+0.00on par

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaralbo ↓

Laguna de Duero →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Villaralbo or draw

81%

Villaralbo or Laguna de Duero

76%

Draw or Laguna de Duero

43%

Winning margin

Villaralbo wins by 2+

32%

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+

Team goals

Villaralbo 1+ goals

82%

Villaralbo 2+ goals

51%

Villaralbo 3+ goals

24%

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals

58%

Laguna de Duero 2+ goals

21%

Laguna de Duero 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Villaralbo (draw refunded)

75%

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villaralbo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.92 · 52 matches

Laguna de Duero away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villaralbo attack 1.02 + Laguna de Duero defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.71

Laguna de Duero attack 0.80 + Villaralbo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Villaralbo scores more

57%

level

24%

Laguna de Duero scores more

19%

Villaralbo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Villaralbo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villaralbo vs Laguna de Duero

Laguna de Duero beat Villaralbo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Los Barreros in Villaralbo.

Villaralbo vs Laguna de Duero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Villaralbo vs Laguna de Duero