Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Laguna de Duero vs Villaralbo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Villaralbo
Villaralbo
9/23/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 3Estadio Municipal La Laguna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Laguna de Duero29%
×Draw30%
Villaralbo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laguna de Duero
0.90
Villaralbo
1.15

Villaralbo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 52 away

creates per match

Laguna de Duero
0.63
Villaralbo
0.83

allows per match

Laguna de Duero
1.46
Villaralbo
1.17

finishing

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par
Villaralbo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laguna de Duero ↓

Villaralbo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Laguna de Duero or draw
59%
Laguna de Duero or Villaralbo
70%
Draw or Villaralbo
71%

Winning margin

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
10%
Villaralbo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
59%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
23%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
6%
Villaralbo 1+ goals
68%
Villaralbo 2+ goals
32%
Villaralbo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
41%
Villaralbo (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laguna de Duero at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

Villaralbo away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laguna de Duero attack 0.63 + Villaralbo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.90

Villaralbo attack 0.83 + Laguna de Duero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Laguna de Duero scores more
29%
level
30%
Villaralbo scores more
41%

Villaralbo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Villaralbo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Laguna de Duero vs Villaralbo

Villaralbo beat Laguna de Duero 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Laguna in Laguna de Duero.