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Villaralbo vs Guijuelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Villaralbo
Villaralbo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Guijuelo
Guijuelo
4/18/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 31Campo Municipal Los Barreros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Villaralbo30%
×Draw29%
Guijuelo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaralbo
0.98
Guijuelo
1.18

Guijuelo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 35 away

creates per match

Villaralbo
1.02
Guijuelo
1.43

allows per match

Villaralbo
0.92
Guijuelo
0.94

finishing

Villaralbo+0.00on par
Guijuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaralbo ↓

Guijuelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villaralbo or draw
60%
Villaralbo or Guijuelo
71%
Draw or Guijuelo
70%

Winning margin

Villaralbo wins by 2+
11%
Guijuelo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Villaralbo 1+ goals
62%
Villaralbo 2+ goals
26%
Villaralbo 3+ goals
8%
Guijuelo 1+ goals
69%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
33%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Villaralbo (draw refunded)
43%
Guijuelo (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaralbo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.92 · 52 matches

Guijuelo away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.94 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaralbo attack 1.02 + Guijuelo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Guijuelo attack 1.43 + Villaralbo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Villaralbo scores more
30%
level
29%
Guijuelo scores more
40%

Guijuelo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villaralbo vs Guijuelo

Villaralbo and Guijuelo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Los Barreros in Villaralbo.