Guijuelo 1–0 Villaralbo: Result & Stats

Guijuelo

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Villaralbo

12/14/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 14Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Guijuelo63%

×Draw24%

Villaralbo13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuijueloExpected goals in this matchVillaralbo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.59

Guijuelo

1.63

Villaralbo

0.59

Guijuelo creates 176% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

2.09

creates per match

0.83

0.35

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Guijuelo

2.09

Villaralbo

0.83

allows per match

Guijuelo

0.35

Villaralbo

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par

Villaralbo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Villaralbo →

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–30%

2–40%

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw

87%

Guijuelo or Villaralbo

76%

Draw or Villaralbo

37%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+

35%

Villaralbo wins by 2+

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals

80%

Guijuelo 2+ goals

48%

Guijuelo 3+ goals

22%

Villaralbo 1+ goals

45%

Villaralbo 2+ goals

12%

Villaralbo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)

83%

Villaralbo (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.35 · 34 matches

Villaralbo away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 2.09 + Villaralbo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.63

Villaralbo attack 0.83 + Guijuelo defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Guijuelo scores more

63%

level

24%

Villaralbo scores more

13%

Guijuelo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff