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Villaralbo vs Atlético Tordesillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Villaralbo
Villaralbo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
9/20/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 3Campo Municipal Los Barreros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Villaralbo35%
×Draw30%
Atlético Tordesillas34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaralbo
1.04
Atlético Tordesillas
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 110 away

creates per match

Villaralbo
1.02
Atlético Tordesillas
1.13

allows per match

Villaralbo
0.92
Atlético Tordesillas
1.07

finishing

Villaralbo+0.00on par
Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaralbo ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Villaralbo or draw
66%
Villaralbo or Atlético Tordesillas
70%
Draw or Atlético Tordesillas
65%

Winning margin

Villaralbo wins by 2+
14%
Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Villaralbo 1+ goals
65%
Villaralbo 2+ goals
28%
Villaralbo 3+ goals
9%
Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
27%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Villaralbo (draw refunded)
51%
Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaralbo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.92 · 52 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaralbo attack 1.02 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + Villaralbo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Villaralbo scores more
35%
level
30%
Atlético Tordesillas scores more
34%

Villaralbo at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Villaralbo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Villaralbo 0–2 Atlético Tordesillas

Atlético Tordesillas beat Villaralbo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Los Barreros in Villaralbo.