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Atlético Tordesillas vs Villaralbo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villaralbo
Villaralbo
5/4/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 37Estadio Las Salinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Atlético Tordesillas49%
×Draw29%
Villaralbo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tordesillas
1.29
Villaralbo
0.76

Atlético Tordesillas creates 70% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 52 away

creates per match

Atlético Tordesillas
1.41
Villaralbo
0.83

allows per match

Atlético Tordesillas
0.69
Villaralbo
1.17

finishing

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par
Villaralbo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tordesillas ↓

Villaralbo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Tordesillas or draw
78%
Atlético Tordesillas or Villaralbo
71%
Draw or Villaralbo
51%

Winning margin

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
23%
Villaralbo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
37%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
14%
Villaralbo 1+ goals
53%
Villaralbo 2+ goals
18%
Villaralbo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
69%
Villaralbo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tordesillas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.69 · 110 matches

Villaralbo away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.41 + Villaralbo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Villaralbo attack 0.83 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlético Tordesillas scores more
49%
level
29%
Villaralbo scores more
22%

Atlético Tordesillas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Tordesillas 0 – 0 Villaralbo

Atlético Tordesillas and Villaralbo drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Las Salinas in Tordesillas.