Villanueva Pardillo 0–0 Torrejón: Result & Stats

Villanueva Pardillo

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Torrejón

3/3/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 23Polideportivo Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Villanueva Pardillo39%

×Draw27%

Torrejón34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villanueva PardilloExpected goals in this matchTorrejón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.23

Villanueva Pardillo

1.33

Torrejón

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 115 away

1.16

creates per match

1.25

1.20

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Villanueva Pardillo

1.16

Torrejón

1.25

allows per match

Villanueva Pardillo

1.20

Torrejón

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Torrejón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva Pardillo ↓

Torrejón →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Villanueva Pardillo or draw

66%

Villanueva Pardillo or Torrejón

73%

Draw or Torrejón

61%

Winning margin

Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+

18%

Torrejón wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals

74%

Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals

38%

Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals

15%

Torrejón 1+ goals

71%

Torrejón 2+ goals

35%

Torrejón 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)

53%

Torrejón (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villanueva Pardillo at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Torrejón away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva Pardillo attack 1.16 + Torrejón defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Torrejón attack 1.25 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Villanueva Pardillo scores more

39%

level

27%

Torrejón scores more

34%

Villanueva Pardillo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Villanueva Pardillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villanueva Pardillo vs Torrejón

Villanueva Pardillo and Torrejón drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Polideportivo Adolfo Suárez in Serranillos del Valle.

Villanueva Pardillo vs Torrejón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Villanueva Pardillo vs Torrejón