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Torrejón vs Villanueva Pardillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Torrejón
Torrejón
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
3/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 20Estadio Las Veredillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Torrejón44%
×Draw29%
Villanueva Pardillo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrejón
1.27
Villanueva Pardillo
0.92

Torrejón creates 38% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 50 away

creates per match

Torrejón
1.43
Villanueva Pardillo
0.90

allows per match

Torrejón
0.93
Villanueva Pardillo
1.10

finishing

Torrejón+0.00on par
Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrejón ↓

Villanueva Pardillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Torrejón or draw
73%
Torrejón or Villanueva Pardillo
71%
Draw or Villanueva Pardillo
56%

Winning margin

Torrejón wins by 2+
20%
Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Torrejón 1+ goals
72%
Torrejón 2+ goals
36%
Torrejón 3+ goals
14%
Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
60%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
23%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Torrejón (draw refunded)
62%
Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrejón at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 115 matches

Villanueva Pardillo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrejón attack 1.43 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Villanueva Pardillo attack 0.90 + Torrejón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torrejón scores more
44%
level
29%
Villanueva Pardillo scores more
27%

Torrejón at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Torrejón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Torrejón 3–0 Villanueva Pardillo

Torrejón beat Villanueva Pardillo 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Las Veredillas in Torrejón de Ardoz.