Villanueva Pardillo 1–1 Santa Ana: Result & Stats

Villanueva Pardillo

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Santa Ana

3/21/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21Estadio Municipal Los Pinos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Villanueva Pardillo48%

×Draw25%

Santa Ana26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villanueva PardilloExpected goals in this matchSanta Ana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.08

Villanueva Pardillo

1.55

Santa Ana

1.08

Villanueva Pardillo creates 44% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 31 away

1.16

creates per match

0.97

1.20

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Villanueva Pardillo

1.16

Santa Ana

0.97

allows per match

Villanueva Pardillo

1.20

Santa Ana

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva Pardillo ↓

Santa Ana →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Villanueva Pardillo or draw

74%

Villanueva Pardillo or Santa Ana

75%

Draw or Santa Ana

52%

Winning margin

Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+

25%

Santa Ana wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals

79%

Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals

46%

Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals

20%

Santa Ana 1+ goals

66%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

29%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)

65%

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villanueva Pardillo at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.94 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva Pardillo attack 1.16 + Santa Ana defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.55

Santa Ana attack 0.97 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Villanueva Pardillo scores more

48%

level

25%

Santa Ana scores more

26%

Villanueva Pardillo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Villanueva Pardillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Villanueva Pardillo 1–1 Santa Ana

Villanueva Pardillo and Santa Ana drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Los Pinos in Villanueva del Pardillo.

Villanueva Pardillo vs Santa Ana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Villanueva Pardillo 1–1 Santa Ana