Santa Ana 0–0 Villanueva Pardillo: Result & Stats

Santa Ana

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Villanueva Pardillo

12/20/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 10Polideportivo Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Ana29%

×Draw26%

Villanueva Pardillo45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa AnaExpected goals in this matchVillanueva Pardillo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.44

Santa Ana

1.10

Villanueva Pardillo

1.44

Villanueva Pardillo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 50 away

1.10

creates per match

0.90

1.97

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Santa Ana

1.10

Villanueva Pardillo

0.90

allows per match

Santa Ana

1.97

Villanueva Pardillo

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Villanueva Pardillo →

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw

55%

Santa Ana or Villanueva Pardillo

74%

Draw or Villanueva Pardillo

71%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+

11%

Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals

67%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

30%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

10%

Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals

76%

Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals

42%

Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

39%

Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

Villanueva Pardillo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.10 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Villanueva Pardillo attack 0.90 + Santa Ana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Santa Ana scores more

29%

level

26%

Villanueva Pardillo scores more

45%

Villanueva Pardillo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Villanueva Pardillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Ana vs Villanueva Pardillo

Santa Ana and Villanueva Pardillo drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 20, 2020.

The match was played at Polideportivo Santa Ana in Madrid.

Santa Ana vs Villanueva Pardillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Santa Ana vs Villanueva Pardillo