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Villanueva Pardillo vs San Fernando Henares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
12/6/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 8Estadio Municipal Los Pinos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Villanueva Pardillo45%
×Draw26%
San Fernando Henares30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanueva Pardillo
1.50
San Fernando Henares
1.17

Villanueva Pardillo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 29 away

creates per match

Villanueva Pardillo
1.16
San Fernando Henares
1.14

allows per match

Villanueva Pardillo
1.20
San Fernando Henares
1.83

finishing

Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par
San Fernando Henares+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva Pardillo ↓

San Fernando Henares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Villanueva Pardillo or draw
70%
Villanueva Pardillo or San Fernando Henares
74%
Draw or San Fernando Henares
55%

Winning margin

Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
22%
San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
78%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
44%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
19%
San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
69%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
33%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
60%
San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanueva Pardillo at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

San Fernando Henares away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva Pardillo attack 1.16 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

San Fernando Henares attack 1.14 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Villanueva Pardillo scores more
45%
level
26%
San Fernando Henares scores more
30%

Villanueva Pardillo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Villanueva Pardillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Villanueva Pardillo 2–1 San Fernando Henares

Villanueva Pardillo beat San Fernando Henares 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Los Pinos in Villanueva del Pardillo.