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San Fernando Henares vs Villanueva Pardillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
3/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 19Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

San Fernando Henares38%
×Draw29%
Villanueva Pardillo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando Henares
1.15
Villanueva Pardillo
1.03

San Fernando Henares creates 12% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 50 away

creates per match

San Fernando Henares
1.19
Villanueva Pardillo
0.90

allows per match

San Fernando Henares
1.16
Villanueva Pardillo
1.10

finishing

San Fernando Henares+0.00on par
Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando Henares ↓

Villanueva Pardillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

San Fernando Henares or draw
68%
San Fernando Henares or Villanueva Pardillo
71%
Draw or Villanueva Pardillo
62%

Winning margin

San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
16%
Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
68%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
32%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
11%
Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
64%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
28%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
54%
Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando Henares at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

Villanueva Pardillo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando Henares attack 1.19 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Villanueva Pardillo attack 0.90 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

San Fernando Henares scores more
38%
level
29%
Villanueva Pardillo scores more
32%

San Fernando Henares at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Fernando Henares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Fernando Henares 0 – 1 Villanueva Pardillo

Villanueva Pardillo beat San Fernando Henares 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino in San Fernando de Henares.