Villanueva Pardillo 0–3 Móstoles: Result & Stats

Villanueva Pardillo

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Móstoles

S. Lagreca 57'

Álvaro Narbona 44'

Portilla 27'

9/24/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 3Campo de Fútbol Guadarrama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Villanueva Pardillo33%

×Draw28%

Móstoles39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villanueva PardilloExpected goals in this matchMóstoles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.25

Villanueva Pardillo

1.13

Móstoles

1.25

Móstoles creates 11% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 75 away

1.16

creates per match

1.29

1.20

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Villanueva Pardillo

1.16

Móstoles

1.29

allows per match

Villanueva Pardillo

1.20

Móstoles

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Móstoles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva Pardillo ↓

Móstoles →

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Villanueva Pardillo or draw

61%

Villanueva Pardillo or Móstoles

72%

Draw or Móstoles

67%

Winning margin

Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+

13%

Móstoles wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals

68%

Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals

31%

Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals

11%

Móstoles 1+ goals

71%

Móstoles 2+ goals

36%

Móstoles 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)

46%

Móstoles (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villanueva Pardillo at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Móstoles away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva Pardillo attack 1.16 + Móstoles defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Móstoles attack 1.29 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Villanueva Pardillo scores more

33%

level

28%

Móstoles scores more

39%

Móstoles at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Portilla

44'

Álvaro Narbona

46'

T. Makumbe← Jorge Santos

57'

S. Lagreca

61'

Álvaro Aguirre← S. Gyesi

61'

Camacho← S. Lagreca

61'

Santi Maroto← Raúl Espinosa

67'

Álex Gálan← Rulo Alonso

67'

Chuky← Koh Ji-Soung

73'

Nacho Recalde← Enric Tarrés

75'

Carlos Albares← Papo

80'

Lalo← Ander Díaz

85'

Iván Eyi← Álvaro Narbona

Villanueva

Móstoles

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Javi Zamorano

46'▲T. Makumbe←▼Jorge Santos

67'▲Álex Gálan←▼Rulo Alonso

67'▲Chuky←▼Koh Ji-Soung

75'▲Carlos Albares←▼Papo

80'▲Lalo←▼Ander Díaz

Villanueva Pardillo substitutes

MakumbeGálanChukyAlbaresLalo

Manager: Víctor González

61'▲Álvaro Aguirre←▼S. Gyesi

61'▲Camacho←▼S. Lagreca

61'▲Santi Maroto←▼Raúl Espinosa

73'▲Nacho Recalde←▼Enric Tarrés

85'▲Iván Eyi←▼Álvaro Narbona

Móstoles substitutes

AguirreCamachoMarotoRecaldeEyi

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Villanueva Pardillo 0–3 Móstoles

Móstoles beat Villanueva Pardillo 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 24, 2023.

Goals: Portilla (27'), Álvaro Narbona (44'), S. Lagreca (57').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Guadarrama in Guadarrama.

Villanueva Pardillo vs Móstoles — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Villanueva Pardillo 0–3 Móstoles