Móstoles 2–0 Villanueva Pardillo: Result & Stats

Móstoles

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Villanueva Pardillo

2/11/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 20Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Móstoles47%

×Draw27%

Villanueva Pardillo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MóstolesExpected goals in this matchVillanueva Pardillo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.96

Móstoles

1.39

Villanueva Pardillo

0.96

Móstoles creates 45% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 50 away

1.67

creates per match

0.90

1.01

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Móstoles

1.67

Villanueva Pardillo

0.90

allows per match

Móstoles

1.01

Villanueva Pardillo

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par

Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

Villanueva Pardillo →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw

74%

Móstoles or Villanueva Pardillo

73%

Draw or Villanueva Pardillo

53%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+

22%

Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals

75%

Móstoles 2+ goals

40%

Móstoles 3+ goals

16%

Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals

62%

Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals

25%

Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)

64%

Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Villanueva Pardillo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.39

Villanueva Pardillo attack 0.90 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Móstoles scores more

47%

level

27%

Villanueva Pardillo scores more

26%

Móstoles at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Móstoles 2–0 Villanueva Pardillo

Móstoles beat Villanueva Pardillo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Soto in Móstoles.

Móstoles vs Villanueva Pardillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Móstoles 2–0 Villanueva Pardillo