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Villanueva Pardillo vs Moratalaz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Moratalaz
Moratalaz
11/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 6Estadio Municipal Los Pinos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Villanueva Pardillo41%
×Draw27%
Moratalaz32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanueva Pardillo
1.35
Moratalaz
1.15

Villanueva Pardillo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 48 away

creates per match

Villanueva Pardillo
1.16
Moratalaz
1.10

allows per match

Villanueva Pardillo
1.20
Moratalaz
1.54

finishing

Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par
Moratalaz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva Pardillo ↓

Moratalaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villanueva Pardillo or draw
68%
Villanueva Pardillo or Moratalaz
73%
Draw or Moratalaz
59%

Winning margin

Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
19%
Moratalaz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
74%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
39%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
15%
Moratalaz 1+ goals
68%
Moratalaz 2+ goals
32%
Moratalaz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
56%
Moratalaz (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanueva Pardillo at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Moratalaz away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva Pardillo attack 1.16 + Moratalaz defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.35

Moratalaz attack 1.10 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Villanueva Pardillo scores more
41%
level
27%
Moratalaz scores more
32%

Villanueva Pardillo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Villanueva Pardillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Villanueva Pardillo 0–1 Moratalaz

Moratalaz beat Villanueva Pardillo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Los Pinos in Villanueva del Pardillo.