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Moratalaz vs Villanueva Pardillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Moratalaz
Moratalaz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
2/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 17Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Moratalaz39%
×Draw28%
Villanueva Pardillo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moratalaz
1.21
Villanueva Pardillo
1.09

Moratalaz creates 11% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 50 away

creates per match

Moratalaz
1.31
Villanueva Pardillo
0.90

allows per match

Moratalaz
1.29
Villanueva Pardillo
1.10

finishing

Moratalaz+0.00on par
Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moratalaz ↓

Villanueva Pardillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Moratalaz or draw
67%
Moratalaz or Villanueva Pardillo
72%
Draw or Villanueva Pardillo
61%

Winning margin

Moratalaz wins by 2+
17%
Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Moratalaz 1+ goals
70%
Moratalaz 2+ goals
34%
Moratalaz 3+ goals
12%
Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
66%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
30%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Moratalaz (draw refunded)
54%
Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moratalaz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Villanueva Pardillo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moratalaz attack 1.31 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Villanueva Pardillo attack 0.90 + Moratalaz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Moratalaz scores more
39%
level
28%
Villanueva Pardillo scores more
33%

Moratalaz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Moratalaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Moratalaz 1 – 1 Villanueva Pardillo

Moratalaz and Villanueva Pardillo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz in Madrid.