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Villanueva Pardillo vs Collado Villalba — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
11/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 11Polideportivo Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Villanueva Pardillo35%
×Draw29%
Collado Villalba36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanueva Pardillo
1.10
Collado Villalba
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 49 away

creates per match

Villanueva Pardillo
1.16
Collado Villalba
1.02

allows per match

Villanueva Pardillo
1.20
Collado Villalba
1.04

finishing

Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par
Collado Villalba+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva Pardillo ↓

Collado Villalba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villanueva Pardillo or draw
64%
Villanueva Pardillo or Collado Villalba
71%
Draw or Collado Villalba
65%

Winning margin

Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
14%
Collado Villalba wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
67%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
30%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
10%
Collado Villalba 1+ goals
67%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
30%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
50%
Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanueva Pardillo at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Collado Villalba away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva Pardillo attack 1.16 + Collado Villalba defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Collado Villalba attack 1.02 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Villanueva Pardillo scores more
35%
level
29%
Collado Villalba scores more
36%

Collado Villalba at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Collado Villalba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villanueva Pardillo 0 – 4 Collado Villalba

Collado Villalba beat Villanueva Pardillo 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Polideportivo Adolfo Suárez in Serranillos del Valle.