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Collado Villalba vs Villanueva Pardillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
4/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 28Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Collado Villalba36%
×Draw27%
Villanueva Pardillo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collado Villalba
1.23
Villanueva Pardillo
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 50 away

creates per match

Collado Villalba
1.35
Villanueva Pardillo
0.90

allows per match

Collado Villalba
1.55
Villanueva Pardillo
1.10

finishing

Collado Villalba+0.00on par
Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collado Villalba ↓

Villanueva Pardillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Collado Villalba or draw
64%
Collado Villalba or Villanueva Pardillo
73%
Draw or Villanueva Pardillo
64%

Winning margin

Collado Villalba wins by 2+
16%
Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Collado Villalba 1+ goals
71%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
35%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
13%
Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
71%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
35%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
50%
Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collado Villalba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

Villanueva Pardillo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collado Villalba attack 1.35 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Villanueva Pardillo attack 0.90 + Collado Villalba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Collado Villalba scores more
36%
level
27%
Villanueva Pardillo scores more
36%

Collado Villalba at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Collado Villalba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Collado Villalba 1 – 1 Villanueva Pardillo

Collado Villalba and Villanueva Pardillo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba in Collado Villalba.