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Villanueva Pardillo vs Alcorcón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
9/21/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Villanueva Pardillo34%
×Draw28%
Alcorcón II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanueva Pardillo
1.13
Alcorcón II
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 97 away

creates per match

Villanueva Pardillo
1.16
Alcorcón II
1.26

allows per match

Villanueva Pardillo
1.20
Alcorcón II
1.10

finishing

Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par
Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva Pardillo ↓

Alcorcón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Villanueva Pardillo or draw
62%
Villanueva Pardillo or Alcorcón II
72%
Draw or Alcorcón II
66%

Winning margin

Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
14%
Alcorcón II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
68%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
31%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
11%
Alcorcón II 1+ goals
71%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
35%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
47%
Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanueva Pardillo at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Alcorcón II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva Pardillo attack 1.16 + Alcorcón II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Alcorcón II attack 1.26 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Villanueva Pardillo scores more
34%
level
28%
Alcorcón II scores more
38%

Alcorcón II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Villanueva Pardillo 2–0 Alcorcón II

Villanueva Pardillo beat Alcorcón II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 21, 2025.