Alcorcón II 1–0 Villanueva Pardillo: Result & Stats

Alcorcón II

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Villanueva Pardillo

1/31/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 20Campo 2 Alcorcón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Alcorcón II45%

×Draw28%

Villanueva Pardillo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alcorcón IIExpected goals in this matchVillanueva Pardillo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.92

Alcorcón II

1.29

Villanueva Pardillo

0.92

Alcorcón II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 50 away

1.48

creates per match

0.90

0.94

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Alcorcón II

1.48

Villanueva Pardillo

0.90

allows per match

Alcorcón II

0.94

Villanueva Pardillo

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcón II ↓

Villanueva Pardillo →

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Alcorcón II or draw

73%

Alcorcón II or Villanueva Pardillo

72%

Draw or Villanueva Pardillo

55%

Winning margin

Alcorcón II wins by 2+

21%

Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+

Team goals

Alcorcón II 1+ goals

72%

Alcorcón II 2+ goals

37%

Alcorcón II 3+ goals

14%

Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals

60%

Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals

23%

Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)

63%

Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alcorcón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

Villanueva Pardillo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcón II attack 1.48 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Villanueva Pardillo attack 0.90 + Alcorcón II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alcorcón II scores more

45%

level

28%

Villanueva Pardillo scores more

27%

Alcorcón II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcorcón II vs Villanueva Pardillo

Alcorcón II beat Villanueva Pardillo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 31, 2026.

The match was played at Campo 2 Alcorcón in Alcorcón.

Alcorcón II vs Villanueva Pardillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alcorcón II vs Villanueva Pardillo