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Villanueva Pardillo vs AD Parla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AD Parla
AD Parla
2/8/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Villanueva Pardillo44%
×Draw27%
AD Parla29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanueva Pardillo
1.40
AD Parla
1.09

Villanueva Pardillo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 98 away

creates per match

Villanueva Pardillo
1.16
AD Parla
0.99

allows per match

Villanueva Pardillo
1.20
AD Parla
1.65

finishing

Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par
AD Parla+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva Pardillo ↓

AD Parla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villanueva Pardillo or draw
71%
Villanueva Pardillo or AD Parla
73%
Draw or AD Parla
56%

Winning margin

Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
21%
AD Parla wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
75%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
41%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
17%
AD Parla 1+ goals
66%
AD Parla 2+ goals
30%
AD Parla 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
60%
AD Parla (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanueva Pardillo at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

AD Parla away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.65 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva Pardillo attack 1.16 + AD Parla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

AD Parla attack 0.99 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Villanueva Pardillo scores more
44%
level
27%
AD Parla scores more
29%

Villanueva Pardillo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Villanueva Pardillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Villanueva Pardillo 1–0 AD Parla

Villanueva Pardillo beat AD Parla 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 8, 2026.