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AD Parla vs Villanueva Pardillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

AD Parla
AD Parla
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
9/28/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Estadio Municipal de Los Prados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

AD Parla35%
×Draw29%
Villanueva Pardillo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Parla
1.09
Villanueva Pardillo
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 50 away

creates per match

AD Parla
1.08
Villanueva Pardillo
0.90

allows per match

AD Parla
1.35
Villanueva Pardillo
1.10

finishing

AD Parla+0.00on par
Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Parla ↓

Villanueva Pardillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AD Parla or draw
63%
AD Parla or Villanueva Pardillo
71%
Draw or Villanueva Pardillo
65%

Winning margin

AD Parla wins by 2+
14%
Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AD Parla 1+ goals
66%
AD Parla 2+ goals
30%
AD Parla 3+ goals
10%
Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
68%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
31%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AD Parla (draw refunded)
49%
Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Parla at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

Villanueva Pardillo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Parla attack 1.08 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.09

Villanueva Pardillo attack 0.90 + AD Parla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

AD Parla scores more
35%
level
29%
Villanueva Pardillo scores more
37%

Villanueva Pardillo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Villanueva Pardillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: AD Parla 2–1 Villanueva Pardillo

AD Parla beat Villanueva Pardillo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Prados in Parla.