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Villanueva CF vs Valdefierro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Villanueva CF
Villanueva CF
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Valdefierro
Valdefierro
4/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Nuevo Enrique Porta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Villanueva CF48%
×Draw25%
Valdefierro27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanueva CF
1.56
Valdefierro
1.11

Villanueva CF creates 41% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Villanueva CF
0.97
Valdefierro
0.45

allows per match

Villanueva CF
1.77
Valdefierro
2.16

finishing

Villanueva CF+0.00on par
Valdefierro+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva CF ↓

Valdefierro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Villanueva CF or draw
73%
Villanueva CF or Valdefierro
75%
Draw or Valdefierro
52%

Winning margin

Villanueva CF wins by 2+
24%
Valdefierro wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Villanueva CF 1+ goals
79%
Villanueva CF 2+ goals
46%
Villanueva CF 3+ goals
21%
Valdefierro 1+ goals
67%
Valdefierro 2+ goals
30%
Valdefierro 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Villanueva CF (draw refunded)
64%
Valdefierro (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanueva CF at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

Valdefierro away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva CF attack 0.97 + Valdefierro defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.56

Valdefierro attack 0.45 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Villanueva CF scores more
48%
level
25%
Valdefierro scores more
27%

Villanueva CF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Villanueva CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villanueva CF vs Valdefierro

Villanueva CF and Valdefierro drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Enrique Porta in Villanueva de Gállego.