Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Valdefierro vs Villanueva CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Valdefierro
Valdefierro
CANC
00:00
Villanueva CF
Villanueva CF
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 36CDM Valdefierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Valdefierro46%
×Draw25%
Villanueva CF28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdefierro
1.54
Villanueva CF
1.14

Valdefierro creates 35% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 30 away

creates per match

Valdefierro
1.32
Villanueva CF
0.73

allows per match

Valdefierro
1.55
Villanueva CF
1.77

finishing

Valdefierro+0.00on par
Villanueva CF+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdefierro ↓

Villanueva CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Valdefierro or draw
72%
Valdefierro or Villanueva CF
75%
Draw or Villanueva CF
54%

Winning margin

Valdefierro wins by 2+
23%
Villanueva CF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Valdefierro 1+ goals
79%
Valdefierro 2+ goals
45%
Valdefierro 3+ goals
20%
Villanueva CF 1+ goals
68%
Villanueva CF 2+ goals
32%
Villanueva CF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Valdefierro (draw refunded)
62%
Villanueva CF (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdefierro at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Villanueva CF away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdefierro attack 1.32 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.54

Villanueva CF attack 0.73 + Valdefierro defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Valdefierro scores more
46%
level
25%
Villanueva CF scores more
28%

Valdefierro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Valdefierro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Valdefierro vs Villanueva CF — Match Preview

Valdefierro face Villanueva CF on April 19, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Valdefierro host Villanueva CF at CDM Valdefierro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.