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Villanueva CF vs San Juan Mozarrifar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Villanueva CF
Villanueva CF
AWD
3 – 0
San Juan Mozarrifar
San Juan Mozarrifar
6/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2nd Phase - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Villanueva CF47%
×Draw26%
San Juan Mozarrifar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanueva CF
1.52
San Juan Mozarrifar
1.11

Villanueva CF creates 37% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 24 away

creates per match

Villanueva CF
0.97
San Juan Mozarrifar
0.46

allows per match

Villanueva CF
1.77
San Juan Mozarrifar
2.08

finishing

Villanueva CF+0.00on par
San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva CF ↓

San Juan Mozarrifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Villanueva CF or draw
72%
Villanueva CF or San Juan Mozarrifar
74%
Draw or San Juan Mozarrifar
53%

Winning margin

Villanueva CF wins by 2+
23%
San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Villanueva CF 1+ goals
78%
Villanueva CF 2+ goals
45%
Villanueva CF 3+ goals
20%
San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals
67%
San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals
30%
San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Villanueva CF (draw refunded)
63%
San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanueva CF at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

San Juan Mozarrifar away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva CF attack 0.97 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.52

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.46 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Villanueva CF scores more
47%
level
26%
San Juan Mozarrifar scores more
28%

Villanueva CF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Villanueva CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Villanueva CF host San Juan Mozarrifar

June 6, 2021: Villanueva CF take on San Juan Mozarrifar in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.