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San Juan Mozarrifar vs Villanueva CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

San Juan Mozarrifar
San Juan Mozarrifar
CANC
16:00
Villanueva CF
Villanueva CF
4/25/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2nd Phase - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

San Juan Mozarrifar38%
×Draw26%
Villanueva CF36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Juan Mozarrifar
1.35
Villanueva CF
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 30 away

creates per match

San Juan Mozarrifar
0.93
Villanueva CF
0.73

allows per match

San Juan Mozarrifar
1.90
Villanueva CF
1.77

finishing

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par
Villanueva CF+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan Mozarrifar ↓

Villanueva CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

San Juan Mozarrifar or draw
64%
San Juan Mozarrifar or Villanueva CF
74%
Draw or Villanueva CF
62%

Winning margin

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+
17%
Villanueva CF wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals
74%
San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals
39%
San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals
15%
Villanueva CF 1+ goals
73%
Villanueva CF 2+ goals
38%
Villanueva CF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)
51%
Villanueva CF (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Juan Mozarrifar at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.90 · 29 matches

Villanueva CF away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.93 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.35

Villanueva CF attack 0.73 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more
38%
level
26%
Villanueva CF scores more
36%

San Juan Mozarrifar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Juan Mozarrifar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: San Juan Mozarrifar host Villanueva CF

April 25, 2021: San Juan Mozarrifar take on Villanueva CF in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.