Villanueva CF 0–1 Épila: Result & Stats

Villanueva CF

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Épila

1/6/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 11Estadio Nuevo Enrique Porta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Villanueva CF26%

×Draw26%

Épila47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villanueva CFExpected goals in this matchÉpila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.46

Villanueva CF

1.01

Épila

1.46

Épila creates 45% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 99 away

0.97

creates per match

1.16

1.77

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Villanueva CF

0.97

Épila

1.16

allows per match

Villanueva CF

1.77

Épila

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villanueva CF+0.00on par

Épila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva CF ↓

Épila →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Villanueva CF or draw

53%

Villanueva CF or Épila

74%

Draw or Épila

74%

Winning margin

Villanueva CF wins by 2+

10%

Épila wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Villanueva CF 1+ goals

64%

Villanueva CF 2+ goals

27%

Villanueva CF 3+ goals

Épila 1+ goals

77%

Épila 2+ goals

43%

Épila 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Villanueva CF (draw refunded)

36%

Épila (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villanueva CF at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

Épila away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva CF attack 0.97 + Épila defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

Épila attack 1.16 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Villanueva CF scores more

26%

level

26%

Épila scores more

47%

Épila at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Épila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff