Épila 4–0 Villanueva CF: Result & Stats

Épila

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Villanueva CF

3/21/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 22Estadio La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Épila55%

×Draw26%

Villanueva CF19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÉpilaExpected goals in this matchVillanueva CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.75

Épila

1.48

Villanueva CF

0.75

Épila creates 97% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 30 away

1.20

creates per match

0.73

0.77

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Épila

1.20

Villanueva CF

0.73

allows per match

Épila

0.77

Villanueva CF

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Épila+0.00on par

Villanueva CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Épila ↓

Villanueva CF →

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Épila or draw

81%

Épila or Villanueva CF

74%

Draw or Villanueva CF

45%

Winning margin

Épila wins by 2+

28%

Villanueva CF wins by 2+

Team goals

Épila 1+ goals

77%

Épila 2+ goals

43%

Épila 3+ goals

19%

Villanueva CF 1+ goals

53%

Villanueva CF 2+ goals

17%

Villanueva CF 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Épila (draw refunded)

74%

Villanueva CF (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Épila at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.77 · 100 matches

Villanueva CF away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Épila attack 1.20 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.48

Villanueva CF attack 0.73 + Épila defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Épila scores more

55%

level

26%

Villanueva CF scores more

19%

Épila at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Épila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff