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Villanueva CF vs Calamocha — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Villanueva CF
Villanueva CF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Calamocha
Calamocha
11/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 7Estadio Nuevo Enrique Porta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Villanueva CF28%
×Draw27%
Calamocha45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanueva CF
1.02
Calamocha
1.39

Calamocha creates 36% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 110 away

creates per match

Villanueva CF
0.97
Calamocha
1.01

allows per match

Villanueva CF
1.77
Calamocha
1.07

finishing

Villanueva CF+0.00on par
Calamocha+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva CF ↓

Calamocha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villanueva CF or draw
55%
Villanueva CF or Calamocha
73%
Draw or Calamocha
72%

Winning margin

Villanueva CF wins by 2+
10%
Calamocha wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Villanueva CF 1+ goals
64%
Villanueva CF 2+ goals
27%
Villanueva CF 3+ goals
8%
Calamocha 1+ goals
75%
Calamocha 2+ goals
40%
Calamocha 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Villanueva CF (draw refunded)
38%
Calamocha (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanueva CF at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

Calamocha away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva CF attack 0.97 + Calamocha defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Calamocha attack 1.01 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Villanueva CF scores more
28%
level
27%
Calamocha scores more
45%

Calamocha at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Calamocha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villanueva CF vs Calamocha

Villanueva CF and Calamocha drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Enrique Porta in Villanueva de Gállego.