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Calamocha vs Villanueva CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Calamocha
Calamocha
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Villanueva CF
Villanueva CF
2/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 18Campo De Fútbol Jumaya Calamocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Calamocha52%
×Draw26%
Villanueva CF22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calamocha
1.51
Villanueva CF
0.89

Calamocha creates 70% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 30 away

creates per match

Calamocha
1.25
Villanueva CF
0.73

allows per match

Calamocha
1.05
Villanueva CF
1.77

finishing

Calamocha+0.00on par
Villanueva CF+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calamocha ↓

Villanueva CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Calamocha or draw
78%
Calamocha or Villanueva CF
74%
Draw or Villanueva CF
48%

Winning margin

Calamocha wins by 2+
26%
Villanueva CF wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Calamocha 1+ goals
78%
Calamocha 2+ goals
44%
Calamocha 3+ goals
19%
Villanueva CF 1+ goals
59%
Villanueva CF 2+ goals
22%
Villanueva CF 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Calamocha (draw refunded)
70%
Villanueva CF (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calamocha at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Villanueva CF away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calamocha attack 1.25 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.51

Villanueva CF attack 0.73 + Calamocha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Calamocha scores more
52%
level
26%
Villanueva CF scores more
22%

Calamocha at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Calamocha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calamocha vs Villanueva CF

Calamocha beat Villanueva CF 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Jumaya Calamocha in Calamocha.