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Villanueva CF vs Barbastro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Villanueva CF
Villanueva CF
CANC
14:00
Barbastro
Barbastro
5/17/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 42Estadio Nuevo Enrique Porta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Villanueva CF25%
×Draw25%
Barbastro51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanueva CF
1.07
Barbastro
1.64

Barbastro creates 53% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 59 away

creates per match

Villanueva CF
0.97
Barbastro
1.51

allows per match

Villanueva CF
1.77
Barbastro
1.17

finishing

Villanueva CF+0.00on par
Barbastro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva CF ↓

Barbastro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Villanueva CF or draw
49%
Villanueva CF or Barbastro
75%
Draw or Barbastro
75%

Winning margin

Villanueva CF wins by 2+
9%
Barbastro wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Villanueva CF 1+ goals
66%
Villanueva CF 2+ goals
29%
Villanueva CF 3+ goals
9%
Barbastro 1+ goals
81%
Barbastro 2+ goals
49%
Barbastro 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Villanueva CF (draw refunded)
33%
Barbastro (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanueva CF at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

Barbastro away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva CF attack 0.97 + Barbastro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Barbastro attack 1.51 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Villanueva CF scores more
25%
level
25%
Barbastro scores more
51%

Barbastro at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Barbastro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Villanueva CF host Barbastro

May 17, 2020: Villanueva CF take on Barbastro in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Villanueva CF host Barbastro at Estadio Nuevo Enrique Porta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.