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Barbastro vs Villanueva CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Barbastro
Barbastro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Villanueva CF
Villanueva CF
12/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2Estadio Municipal de Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Barbastro54%
×Draw28%
Villanueva CF18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barbastro
1.40
Villanueva CF
0.69

Barbastro creates 103% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Barbastro
1.02
Villanueva CF
0.73

allows per match

Barbastro
0.65
Villanueva CF
1.77

finishing

Barbastro+0.00on par
Villanueva CF+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbastro ↓

Villanueva CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Barbastro or draw
82%
Barbastro or Villanueva CF
72%
Draw or Villanueva CF
46%

Winning margin

Barbastro wins by 2+
27%
Villanueva CF wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Barbastro 1+ goals
75%
Barbastro 2+ goals
41%
Barbastro 3+ goals
17%
Villanueva CF 1+ goals
50%
Villanueva CF 2+ goals
15%
Villanueva CF 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Barbastro (draw refunded)
75%
Villanueva CF (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barbastro at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.65 · 60 matches

Villanueva CF away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barbastro attack 1.02 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.40

Villanueva CF attack 0.73 + Barbastro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Barbastro scores more
54%
level
28%
Villanueva CF scores more
18%

Barbastro at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Barbastro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barbastro vs Villanueva CF

Barbastro and Villanueva CF drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on December 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Deportes in Barbastro.